Why Congress lost vote share in Muslim constituencies in 2013 polls?

03 Mar 2014 03:03 PM, IST

Sonia Gandhi and Congress

The recently held elections in five state assemblies were widely considered as semi-final for the forthcoming general election 2014 due to its timing and coverage. These states (Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram) constitute 13% of the parliamentary constituencies (73 out of 543), 15%of all assembly constituencies (630 out of 4120) and 15% population of the country. The two main national rival parties, BJP and Congress, were in direct fray against each other without having any notable presence of regional parties. These leading parties of both the national alliances –UPA and NDA – have the major vote bank in these mainly Hindi speaking states. Congress not only lost the Rajasthan state but also suffered with major loss in Madhya Pradesh and could not win Chhattisgarh in spite of sympathy wave after its top leadership’s death in a Naxalite attack. BJP retained the Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh third time consecutively. The most surprising result was in Delhi where less than one-year-old Aam Aadmi Party won the second highest number of seats and pushed the incumbent Congress to the third position.

Though the state election results are basically a mandate for state policies the upcoming national election has both possibilities: It could bring different result or would be a repetition of 2013. In the year 2003, BJP had the similar win in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh but lost the general election 2004 as an incumbent and Congress came back to power.

The recent state election results have been analyzed with different approaches of loss and gains in terms of parties, rural and urban locations, scheduled castes and tribes reserved or unreserved seats,but perhaps religious break-up or the voting trend of Muslimshas not been taken into account so far. This article looks into the results in this perspective.

According to media analyses, Muslims, who are commonly believed to be voting against BJP, have voted this timein favor of BJP. Lots of discussions have come about the accuracy and authenticity of such statement but what cannot be ignoredis the fact that most of the Muslim concentrated constituencies have elected BJP candidates. This could be due to polarization of other religious fellow voters in favor of BJP or the reluctance of Muslim voters towards Congress due to its policies,which forced them to change their traditional loyalty towards the party.

Out of total 46 Muslim concentrated constituencies in these five states, the number of seats won by Congress decreased from 26 in the 2008 election to 6 in the 2013 election. While the number of seats won by BJP increased from 16 in 2008 to 32 in 2013.

Muslim representation in these assemblies also has notably decreased from 21 in 2008 to 9 in 2013. Muslim representation in Delhi and Madhya Pradesh assemblies remained same in both the elections for five and one respectively while Chhattisgarh which had only one Muslim MLA in 2008 got none in the 2013 election. The most surprising result was in Rajasthan where Muslim candidates got humiliating defeat. In 2008 election, 12 Muslims (10 from Congress and 2 from BJP) had won, but in 2013 only 2 Muslims (both on BJP ticket) could win.

In terms of party performance, INC is the main losing party in Muslim concentrated assemblies. Its vote share declined to 34% from 37% and lost 20 seats from earlier position. Whereas BJP vote share has increased from 36 to 43% and has the gain of 17 seats. The table below shows the state level break-up for the Muslim representation and the performance of Congress and BJP in Muslim concentrated assembly constituencies:

Muslim representation and performance of INC & BJP in Muslim concentrated assemblies in 5 state elections in 2013
Particular	Chhattisgarh	Delhi	MP	Rajasthan	Mizoram	Total
Total Population	20833803	13850507	60348023	56507188	888573	152428094
Muslim Population	409615	1623520	3841449	4788227	10099	10672910
Percentage Share of Muslims Population to Total Population	1.97	11.72	6.37	8.47	1.14	7.00
Number of ACs	90	70	230	200	40	630
Entitlement of ACs for Muslim as per state population ratio	2	8	15	17	0	42
Actual Won in Last Vidhan Sabha Election 2008	1	5	1	12	0	21
Actual Won in Last Vidhan Sabha Election 2013	0	5	1	2	0	8
INC and BJP party position in Muslim concentrated ACs
Muslim concentrated ACs (Population more than 20%)	0	14	9	23	0	46
INC won in 2008	0	7	2	17	0	26
INC Vote share (%)	0	36	31	40	0	37
INC won in 2013	0	3	1	2	0	6
INC Vote share	0	25	41	33	0	34
INC Seats swing	0	-4	-1	-15	0	-20
INC vote share swing	0	-11	10	-7	0	-3
BJP won in 2008	0	4	6	6	0	16
BJP Vote share	0	31	46	34	0	36
BJP won in 2013	0	6	8	19	0	33
BJP Vote share	0	33	54	44	0	43
BJP Seats swing	0	2	2	13	0	17
BJP vote share swing	0	2	8	10	0	7

Besides the factor of vote polarization, Muslims in fact have not taken much interest in voting in elections 2013 which reflected in low polling percentage. Most of the Muslim concentrated constituencies have the below average poll percentage. Further, Muslims are more conscious towards communal riots - main reason behind the voting against Congress in Rajasthan. Delay in responding to Gopalgarh riot adversely affected the prospective of Congress in Muslim concentrated assemblies in Rajasthan. Muslim candidates themselves lost with large margins in highly Muslim populated areas.

In Madhya Pradesh, voting share of both national parties has increased at the cost of other parties like BSP. Ashok Chouhan remained the favorite option due to his secular image in most of Muslim concentrated assemblies. In spite of emergence of another alternative in the shape of AAP in Delhi, Muslim remained loyal to Congress as all its Muslim candidates won in the Muslim concentrated areas.

These eye-opening outcomes indicate that merely creating fear against any party or leader would not suffice until the real performance for the welfare of community is shown on the ground.Congress indeed tried to accomplish its promises towards the Muslim community. It seriously tried to find out the level of Muslims’ socio-economic condition by forming the Sachar Committee in UPA-I. I think so many schemes for the welfare of Muslims were never introduced by any government since the independence as UPA has initiated but implementation was slow or was not into the right direction. Entitlement of welfare schemes to all minorities without considering the different socio-economic level between Muslims and other minority communities also spoil the actual purpose of these schemes.Recurrence of riots in Congress-ruled states is the most disappointing fact for the Muslim community.Further, interaction to Muslim masses should be directly instead through handful leaders and there is a need to adhere to the legitimate representation policy in tickets distribution according to the population ratio of the community.

Courtesy: IndiaTomorrow.Net